Combat Edge Intelligence

Brian Ortega vs Diego Brandao

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

16-5-0Record29-21-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'9"Height5'7"
69"Reach38,0"
155 lbsWeight145 lbs
Black HouseTeamJackson-Wink MMA

What's at stake

Brian Ortega is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Diego Brandao carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Brian OrtegaNow 1716
If they win+11→ 1727
If they lose-21→ 1695
Diego BrandaoNow 1604
If they win+16→ 1620
If they lose-8→ 1596

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1776 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1550 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.84
Sig. strikes / min
2.94
37%
Strike accuracy
48%
6.38
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.38
49%
Strike defense
62%
0.93
Takedown avg.
3.21
25%
Takedown accuracy
68%
55%
Takedown defense
81%
0.93
Submission avg.
0.57

Trajectory

Brian OrtegaDiego Brandao
1550160016501700175020242025

Win method breakdown

3 (19%)
KO/TKO
16 (55%)
8 (50%)
Submission
6 (21%)
5 (31%)
Decision
7 (24%)

Combat Edge model read

Brian Ortega78%
Diego Brandao 22%Elo baseline: 66%

The Combat Edge model makes Brian Ortega a 78% favorite over Diego Brandao in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (66%).

Brian Ortega holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1716 to 1604, a 112-point edge.

Brian Ortega enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Diego Brandao enters on a 3-fight win streak.

Brian Ortega finishes 69% of wins inside the distance, Diego Brandao 76%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.