Combat Edge Intelligence

Brian Ortega vs Diego Lopes

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

16-5-0Record28-8-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'9"Height5'11"
69"Reach72"
155 lbsWeight161 lbs
Black HouseTeamLobo Gym MMA

What's at stake

Diego Lopes is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Brian Ortega carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Brian OrtegaNow 1716
If they win+19→ 1735
If they lose-13→ 1703
Diego LopesNow 1781
If they win+10→ 1791
If they lose-14→ 1767

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1776 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1754 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.84
Sig. strikes / min
3.83
37%
Strike accuracy
48%
6.38
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.56
49%
Strike defense
46%
0.93
Takedown avg.
0.88
25%
Takedown accuracy
50%
55%
Takedown defense
69%
0.93
Submission avg.
1.38

Trajectory

Brian OrtegaDiego Lopes
170017501800202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (19%)
KO/TKO
12 (43%)
8 (50%)
Submission
12 (43%)
5 (31%)
Decision
4 (14%)

Combat Edge model read

Diego Lopes87%
Brian Ortega 13%Elo baseline: 59%

The Combat Edge model makes Diego Lopes a 87% favorite over Brian Ortega in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).

Diego Lopes holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1781 to 1716, a 65-point edge.

Brian Ortega enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Brian Ortega finishes 69% of wins inside the distance, Diego Lopes 86%.

Brian Ortega and Diego Lopes share 1 common opponent: Alexander Volkanovski.

Diego Lopes carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.

Common opponents (1)

LossDecision (unanimous) · 2021
LossDecision (Unanimous) · 2021
Alexander Volkanovski
LossDecision (unanimous) · 2026
LossDecision (unanimous) · 2025