Brian Ortega vs Frankie Edgar
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-5-0Record24-11-1
FeatherweightDivisionBantamweight
5'9"Height5'6"
69"Reach 68"
155 lbsWeight136 lbs
Black HouseTeamRicardo Almeida Jiu-Jitsu
What's at stake
Brian Ortega is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Frankie Edgar carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1731
If they lose-17→ 1699
If they win+13→ 1705
If they lose-11→ 1681
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1776 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1719 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Brian OrtegaFrankie Edgar
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Brian Ortega75%
Frankie Edgar 25%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Brian Ortega a 75% favorite over Frankie Edgar in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Brian Ortega holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1716 to 1692, a 24-point edge.
Brian Ortega enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Frankie Edgar enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Brian Ortega finishes 69% of wins inside the distance, Frankie Edgar 46%.
Brian Ortega and Frankie Edgar share 4 common opponents: Yair Rodriguez, Chan Sung Jung, Max Holloway and Cub Swanson.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.