Combat Edge Intelligence

Brian Ortega vs Julio Arce

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

16-5-0Record22-7-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'7"
69"Reach70"
155 lbsWeight147 lbs
Black HouseTeamTeam Tiger Schulmann

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Brian OrtegaNow 1716
If they win+16→ 1732
If they lose-16→ 1700
Julio ArceNow 1714
If they win+12→ 1726
If they lose-12→ 1702

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1776 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1649 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.84
Sig. strikes / min
4.36
37%
Strike accuracy
36%
6.38
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.05
49%
Strike defense
68%
0.93
Takedown avg.
0.46
2%
Takedown accuracy
29%
55%
Takedown defense
96%
0.93
Submission avg.
0.35

Trajectory

Brian OrtegaJulio Arce
1700175020252026

Win method breakdown

3 (19%)
KO/TKO
7 (32%)
8 (50%)
Submission
5 (23%)
5 (31%)
Decision
10 (45%)

Combat Edge model read

Julio Arce60%
Brian Ortega 40%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Julio Arce a 60% favorite over Brian Ortega in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Brian Ortega's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1716 vs 1714), separated by just 2 points.

Brian Ortega enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Brian Ortega finishes 69% of wins inside the distance, Julio Arce 55%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.