Brian Ortega vs Max Holloway
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
16-5-0Record27-9-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'11"
69"Reach69"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Black HouseTeamGracie Technics
What's at stake
Max Holloway is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Brian Ortega carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+21→ 1737
If they lose-11→ 1705
If they win+9→ 1826
If they lose-15→ 1802
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1776 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1794 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Brian OrtegaMax Holloway
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Max Holloway71%
Brian Ortega 29%Elo baseline: 64%
The Combat Edge model makes Max Holloway a 71% favorite over Brian Ortega in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (64%).
Max Holloway holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1817 to 1716, a 101-point edge.
Brian Ortega enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Brian Ortega finishes 69% of wins inside the distance, Max Holloway 52%.
Brian Ortega and Max Holloway share 3 common opponents: Yair Rodriguez, Alexander Volkanovski and Chan Sung Jung.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Common opponents (3)
LossDecision (unanimous) · 2021
LossDecision (Unanimous) · 2021
LossDecision (unanimous) · 2022
LossDecision (split) · 2020