Combat Edge Intelligence

Brian Ortega vs Thiago Tavares

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

16-5-0Record24-11-1
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'9"Height5'7"
69"Reach68,0"
155 lbsWeight145 lbs
Black HouseTeamTeam Tavares

What's at stake

Brian Ortega is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Thiago Tavares carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Brian OrtegaNow 1716
If they win+13→ 1729
If they lose-19→ 1697
Thiago TavaresNow 1645
If they win+14→ 1659
If they lose-10→ 1635

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1776 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1572 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.84
Sig. strikes / min
2
37%
Strike accuracy
40%
6.38
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.31
49%
Strike defense
63%
0.93
Takedown avg.
3.83
25%
Takedown accuracy
43%
55%
Takedown defense
63%
0.93
Submission avg.
1.46

Trajectory

Brian OrtegaThiago Tavares
1650170017502019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

3 (19%)
KO/TKO
4 (17%)
8 (50%)
Submission
15 (63%)
5 (31%)
Decision
5 (21%)

Combat Edge model read

Brian Ortega78%
Thiago Tavares 22%Elo baseline: 60%

The Combat Edge model makes Brian Ortega a 78% favorite over Thiago Tavares in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).

Brian Ortega holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1716 to 1645, a 71-point edge.

Brian Ortega enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Brian Ortega finishes 69% of wins inside the distance, Thiago Tavares 79%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.