Brian Ortega vs Yair Rodriguez
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-5-0Record20-5-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'9"Height5'11"
69"Reach71"
155 lbsWeight145 lbs
Black HouseTeamValle Flow Striking· 1672 avg Elo · 3 rated
What's at stake
Yair Rodriguez is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Brian Ortega carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1734
If they lose-14→ 1702
If they win+14→ 1765
If they lose-18→ 1733
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1776 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1736 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Brian OrtegaYair Rodriguez
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Yair Rodriguez58%
Brian Ortega 42%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes Yair Rodriguez a 58% favorite over Brian Ortega in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
Yair Rodriguez holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1751 to 1716, a 35-point edge.
Brian Ortega enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Brian Ortega finishes 69% of wins inside the distance, Yair Rodriguez 65%.
Brian Ortega and Yair Rodriguez share 4 common opponents: Alexander Volkanovski, Chan Sung Jung, Max Holloway and Frankie Edgar.
Yair Rodriguez carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Common opponents (4)
LossDecision (unanimous) · 2021
LossDecision (Unanimous) · 2021
LossKO/TKO · 2023