Combat Edge Intelligence

Brock Larson vs Gilbert Burns

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

42-10-0Record22-10-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'10"
TBDReach 71"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Get Sum Athletic CompoundTeamKill Cliff FC

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Brock LarsonNow 1743
If they win+12→ 1755
If they lose-12→ 1731
Gilbert BurnsNow 1744
If they win+12→ 1756
If they lose-12→ 1732

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1570 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1777 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.39
Sig. strikes / min
3.15
47%
Strike accuracy
48%
1.50
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.64
56%
Strike defense
52%
2.67
Takedown avg.
2.12
34%
Takedown accuracy
38%
43%
Takedown defense
54%
2
Submission avg.
0.46

Trajectory

Brock LarsonGilbert Burns
175018002014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

15 (37%)
KO/TKO
6 (27%)
21 (51%)
Submission
9 (41%)
5 (12%)
Decision
7 (32%)

Combat Edge model read

Gilbert Burns70%
Brock Larson 30%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Gilbert Burns a 70% favorite over Brock Larson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1743 vs 1744), separated by just 1 points.

Gilbert Burns enters on a 5-fight loss streak.

Brock Larson finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Gilbert Burns 68%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.