Combat Edge Intelligence

Brock Larson vs Jesse Sanders

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

42-10-0Record23-7-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height6'1"
TBDReachTBD
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Get Sum Athletic CompoundTeamTBD

What's at stake

Brock Larson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Jesse Sanders carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Brock LarsonNow 1743
If they win+6→ 1749
If they lose-18→ 1725
Jesse SandersNow 1561
If they win+24→ 1585
If they lose-8→ 1553

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1570 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1511 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.39
Sig. strikes / min
0
47%
Strike accuracy
0%
1.50
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
6.45
56%
Strike defense
35%
2.67
Takedown avg.
0
34%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
43%
Takedown defense
50%
2
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Brock LarsonJesse Sanders
155016001650170017502013201420152016

Win method breakdown

15 (37%)
KO/TKO
8 (36%)
21 (51%)
Submission
13 (59%)
5 (12%)
Decision
1 (5%)

Combat Edge model read

Brock Larson80%
Jesse Sanders 20%Elo baseline: 74%

The Combat Edge model makes Brock Larson a 80% favorite over Jesse Sanders in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (74%).

Brock Larson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1743 to 1561, a 182-point edge.

Brock Larson finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Jesse Sanders 95%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.