Combat Edge Intelligence

Brock Larson vs Jon Fitch

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

42-10-0Record32-8-2
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height6'0"
TBDReachTBD
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Get Sum Athletic CompoundTeamAmerican Kickboxing Academy

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Brock LarsonNow 1743
If they win+12→ 1755
If they lose-12→ 1731
Jon FitchNow 1741
If they win+12→ 1753
If they lose-12→ 1729

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1570 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1673 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.39
Sig. strikes / min
2.64
47%
Strike accuracy
51%
1.50
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.75
56%
Strike defense
54%
2.67
Takedown avg.
3.64
34%
Takedown accuracy
55%
43%
Takedown defense
56%
2
Submission avg.
0.88

Trajectory

Brock LarsonJon Fitch
17502014201520162017201820192020

Win method breakdown

15 (37%)
KO/TKO
7 (22%)
21 (51%)
Submission
5 (16%)
5 (12%)
Decision
20 (63%)

Combat Edge model read

Jon Fitch56%
Brock Larson 44%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Jon Fitch a 56% favorite over Brock Larson in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Brock Larson's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1743 vs 1741), separated by just 2 points.

Brock Larson finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Jon Fitch 38%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.