Combat Edge Intelligence

Brock Larson vs Keita Nakamura

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

42-10-0Record36-12-2
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'11"
TBDReach73,0"
170 lbsWeight156 lbs
Get Sum Athletic CompoundTeamUnited Gym Tokyo

What's at stake

Brock Larson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Keita Nakamura carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Brock LarsonNow 1743
If they win+10→ 1753
If they lose-14→ 1729
Keita NakamuraNow 1693
If they win+14→ 1707
If they lose-10→ 1683

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1570 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1637 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.39
Sig. strikes / min
2.23
47%
Strike accuracy
37%
1.50
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.20
56%
Strike defense
59%
2.67
Takedown avg.
1.65
34%
Takedown accuracy
49%
43%
Takedown defense
64%
2
Submission avg.
0.35

Trajectory

Brock LarsonKeita Nakamura
1700175020142015201620172018201920202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

15 (37%)
KO/TKO
9 (25%)
21 (51%)
Submission
16 (44%)
5 (12%)
Decision
11 (31%)

Combat Edge model read

Brock Larson57%
Keita Nakamura 43%Elo baseline: 57%

The Combat Edge model makes Brock Larson a 57% favorite over Keita Nakamura in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).

Brock Larson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1743 to 1693, a 50-point edge.

Brock Larson finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Keita Nakamura 69%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.