Combat Edge Intelligence

Brock Larson vs Mike Pierce

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

42-10-0Record17-7-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'8"
TBDReachTBD
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Get Sum Athletic CompoundTeamSports Lab

What's at stake

Brock Larson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Mike Pierce carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Brock LarsonNow 1743
If they win+11→ 1754
If they lose-13→ 1730
Mike PierceNow 1715
If they win+13→ 1728
If they lose-11→ 1704

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1570 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1611 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.39
Sig. strikes / min
2.62
47%
Strike accuracy
42%
1.50
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.36
56%
Strike defense
62%
2.67
Takedown avg.
3.08
34%
Takedown accuracy
43%
43%
Takedown defense
71%
2
Submission avg.
0.25

Trajectory

Brock LarsonMike Pierce
170017502013201420152016

Win method breakdown

15 (37%)
KO/TKO
8 (47%)
21 (51%)
Submission
1 (6%)
5 (12%)
Decision
8 (47%)

Combat Edge model read

Mike Pierce56%
Brock Larson 44%Elo baseline: 46%

The Combat Edge model makes Mike Pierce a 56% favorite over Brock Larson in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Brock Larson's way (46%).

Brock Larson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1743 to 1715, a 28-point edge.

Mike Pierce enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Brock Larson finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Mike Pierce 53%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.