Combat Edge Intelligence

Brock Larson vs Sam Patterson

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

42-10-0Record15-3-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height6'4"
TBDReach78"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Get Sum Athletic CompoundTeamTeam Crossface

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Brock LarsonNow 1743
If they win+12→ 1755
If they lose-12→ 1731
Sam PattersonNow 1746
If they win+16→ 1762
If they lose-16→ 1730

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1570 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1640 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.39
Sig. strikes / min
2.62
47%
Strike accuracy
38%
1.50
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.06
56%
Strike defense
50%
2.67
Takedown avg.
0.82
34%
Takedown accuracy
0%
43%
Takedown defense
33%
2
Submission avg.
1.64

Trajectory

Brock LarsonSam Patterson
170017502014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

15 (37%)
KO/TKO
7 (47%)
21 (51%)
Submission
7 (47%)
5 (12%)
Decision
1 (7%)

Combat Edge model read

Sam Patterson73%
Brock Larson 27%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Sam Patterson a 73% favorite over Brock Larson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1743 vs 1746), separated by just 3 points.

Brock Larson finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Sam Patterson 93%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.