Combat Edge Intelligence

Brock Lesnar vs Cain Velasquez

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

5-3-0Record14-3-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'1"
81"Reach77"
265 lbsWeight241 lbs
Team Death ClutchTeamAmerican Kickboxing Academy

What's at stake

Cain Velasquez is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Brock Lesnar carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Brock LesnarNow 1590
If they win+34→ 1624
If they lose-14→ 1576
Cain VelasquezNow 1737
If they win+10→ 1747
If they lose-22→ 1715

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1648 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1741 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.53
Sig. strikes / min
6.37
72%
Strike accuracy
58%
2.11
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.33
51%
Strike defense
57%
3.90
Takedown avg.
5.13
55%
Takedown accuracy
45%
60%
Takedown defense
86%
0.49
Submission avg.
0.38

Trajectory

Brock LesnarCain Velasquez
1600165017001750201720182019

Win method breakdown

3 (60%)
KO/TKO
12 (86%)
1 (20%)
Submission
0 (0%)
1 (20%)
Decision
2 (14%)

Combat Edge model read

Cain Velasquez83%
Brock Lesnar 17%Elo baseline: 70%

The Combat Edge model makes Cain Velasquez a 83% favorite over Brock Lesnar in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (70%).

Cain Velasquez holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1737 to 1590, a 147-point edge.

Brock Lesnar finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Cain Velasquez 86%.

Brock Lesnar carries a 4-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.