Brock Lesnar vs Cain Velasquez
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
5-3-0Record14-3-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'1"
81"Reach77"
265 lbsWeight241 lbs
Team Death ClutchTeamAmerican Kickboxing Academy· 1637 avg Elo · 6 rated
What's at stake
Cain Velasquez is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Brock Lesnar carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+35→ 1596
If they lose-13→ 1548
If they win+9→ 1745
If they lose-23→ 1713
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1650 · 8 fightsPre-fight Elo1738 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Brock LesnarCain Velasquez
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Cain Velasquez76%
Brock Lesnar 24%Elo baseline: 73%
The Combat Edge model makes Cain Velasquez a 76% favorite over Brock Lesnar in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (73%).
Cain Velasquez holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1736 to 1561, a 175-point edge.
Brock Lesnar enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Brock Lesnar finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Cain Velasquez 86%.
Brock Lesnar carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.