Brock Lesnar vs Heath Herring
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
5-3-0Record28-16-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'4"
81"ReachTBD
265 lbsWeight250 lbs
Team Death ClutchTeamLas Vegas Combat Club
What's at stake
Heath Herring is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Brock Lesnar carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+28→ 1589
If they lose-20→ 1541
If they win+10→ 1632
If they lose-14→ 1608
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1650 · 8 fightsPre-fight Elo1619 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Brock LesnarHeath Herring
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Heath Herring70%
Brock Lesnar 30%Elo baseline: 59%
The Combat Edge model makes Heath Herring a 70% favorite over Brock Lesnar in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).
Heath Herring holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1622 to 1561, a 61-point edge.
Brock Lesnar enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Heath Herring enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Brock Lesnar finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Heath Herring 85%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.