Brock Lesnar vs Matt Adams
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
5-3-0Record6-3-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height5'10"
81"Reach75"
265 lbsWeight263 lbs
Team Death ClutchTeamRaw MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1585
If they lose-24→ 1537
If they win+24→ 1582
If they lose-24→ 1534
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1650 · 8 fightsPre-fight Elo1509 · 9 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Brock LesnarMatt Adams
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Brock Lesnar60%
Matt Adams 40%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Brock Lesnar a 60% favorite over Matt Adams in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1561 vs 1558), separated by just 3 points.
Brock Lesnar enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Brock Lesnar finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Matt Adams 83%.
Brock Lesnar carries a 6-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.