Brock Lesnar vs Shane Carwin
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
5-3-0Record12-2-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'2"
81"ReachTBD
265 lbsWeight254 lbs
Team Death ClutchTeamGrudge Training Center
What's at stake
Shane Carwin is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Brock Lesnar carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+32→ 1593
If they lose-16→ 1545
If they win+11→ 1685
If they lose-21→ 1653
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1650 · 8 fightsPre-fight Elo1567 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Brock LesnarShane Carwin
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Brock Lesnar55%
Shane Carwin 45%Elo baseline: 34%
The Combat Edge model makes Brock Lesnar a 55% favorite over Shane Carwin in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Shane Carwin's way (34%).
Shane Carwin holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1674 to 1561, a 113-point edge.
Brock Lesnar enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Brock Lesnar finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Shane Carwin 100%.
Brock Lesnar and Shane Carwin share 1 common opponent: Frank Mir.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.