Brock Lesnar vs Shane Carwin
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
5-3-0Record12-2-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'2"
81"ReachTBD
265 lbsWeight254 lbs
Team Death ClutchTeamGrudge Training Center
What's at stake
Shane Carwin is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Brock Lesnar carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+30→ 1620
If they lose-18→ 1572
If they win+12→ 1684
If they lose-20→ 1652
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1648 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1563 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Brock LesnarShane Carwin
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Shane Carwin61%
Brock Lesnar 39%Elo baseline: 62%
The Combat Edge model makes Shane Carwin a 61% favorite over Brock Lesnar in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (62%).
Shane Carwin holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1672 to 1590, a 82-point edge.
Brock Lesnar finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Shane Carwin 100%.
Brock Lesnar and Shane Carwin share 1 common opponent: Frank Mir.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.