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Combat Edge Intelligence

Brock Lesnar vs Terrance Chatman

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

5-3-0Record5-2-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'0"
81"Reach76"
265 lbsWeight266 lbs
Team Death ClutchTeam4oz. Fight Club· 1605 avg Elo · 9 rated

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Brock LesnarNow 1561
If they win+24→ 1585
If they lose-24→ 1537
Terrance ChatmanNow 1564
If they win+24→ 1588
If they lose-24→ 1540

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1650 · 8 fightsPre-fight Elo1507 · 7 fights

Tracked stat edges

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

3.53
Sig. strikes / min
Not available
72%
Strike accuracy
Not available
2.11
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
Not available
51%
Strike defense
Not available
3.90
Takedown avg.
Not available
55%
Takedown accuracy
Not available
60%
Takedown defense
Not available
0.49
Submission avg.
Not available

Trajectory

Brock LesnarTerrance Chatman
1550160020102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (60%)
KO/TKO
4 (80%)
1 (20%)
Submission
0 (0%)
1 (20%)
Decision
1 (20%)

Combat Edge model read

Brock Lesnar54%
Terrance Chatman 46%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Brock Lesnar a 54% favorite over Terrance Chatman in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Terrance Chatman's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1561 vs 1564), separated by just 3 points.

Brock Lesnar enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Brock Lesnar finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Terrance Chatman 80%.

Brock Lesnar carries a 5-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.