Combat Edge Intelligence

Bruno Santos vs Daniel Sarafian

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

19-5-1Record11-6-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'8"Height5'9"
TBDReachTBD
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
MMA MastersTeamPower MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Bruno SantosNow 1576
If they win+16→ 1592
If they lose-16→ 1560
Daniel SarafianNow 1579
If they win+16→ 1595
If they lose-16→ 1563

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1543 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1548 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.18
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
46%
Strike accuracy
TBD
2.27
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
57%
Strike defense
TBD
3
Takedown avg.
TBD
38%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
67%
Takedown defense
TBD
0.33
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Bruno SantosDaniel Sarafian
15501600201720182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

1 (5%)
KO/TKO
1 (9%)
1 (5%)
Submission
7 (64%)
17 (89%)
Decision
3 (27%)

Combat Edge model read

Daniel Sarafian52%
Bruno Santos 48%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Daniel Sarafian a 52% favorite over Bruno Santos in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1576 vs 1579), separated by just 3 points.

Daniel Sarafian enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Bruno Santos finishes 11% of wins inside the distance, Daniel Sarafian 73%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.