Combat Edge Intelligence

Bruno Santos vs Kevin Casey

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

19-5-1Record9-6-2
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'8"Height5'11"
TBDReach77,0"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
MMA MastersTeamBlack House

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Bruno SantosNow 1576
If they win+16→ 1592
If they lose-16→ 1560
Kevin CaseyNow 1579
If they win+16→ 1595
If they lose-16→ 1563

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1543 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1612 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.18
Sig. strikes / min
2.27
46%
Strike accuracy
54%
2.27
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.76
57%
Strike defense
46%
3
Takedown avg.
0.79
38%
Takedown accuracy
22%
67%
Takedown defense
27%
0.33
Submission avg.
0.40

Trajectory

Bruno SantosKevin Casey
1550160016502016201720182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

1 (5%)
KO/TKO
3 (33%)
1 (5%)
Submission
3 (33%)
17 (89%)
Decision
3 (33%)

Combat Edge model read

Bruno Santos56%
Kevin Casey 44%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Bruno Santos a 56% favorite over Kevin Casey in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Kevin Casey's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1576 vs 1579), separated by just 3 points.

Bruno Santos finishes 11% of wins inside the distance, Kevin Casey 67%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.