Bruno Souza vs Melsik Baghdasaryan
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Bruno Souza57%
Melsik Baghdasaryan 43%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Bruno Souza a 57% favorite over Melsik Baghdasaryan in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Bruno Souza holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1665 to 1622, a 43-point edge.
Bruno Souza enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Melsik Baghdasaryan enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Bruno Souza finishes 27% of wins inside the distance, Melsik Baghdasaryan 63%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
16-4-0Record8-4-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'10"Height5'8"
70"Reach70"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
What's at stake
Bruno Souza is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Melsik Baghdasaryan carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1679
If they lose-18→ 1647
If they win+18→ 1640
If they lose-14→ 1608
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1545 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1592 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Bruno SouzaMelsik Baghdasaryan