Combat Edge Intelligence

Bryan Caraway vs Erik Perez

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Erik Perez
mx

Erik Perez

“Goyito”

20-9-0FeatherweightBFC

1657Good

Tale of the tape

22-9-0Record20-9-0
BantamweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'9"Height5'7"
68,0"Reach68,0"
135 lbsWeight145 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamAlliance MMA

What's at stake

Bryan Caraway is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Erik Perez carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Bryan CarawayNow 1683
If they win+11→ 1694
If they lose-13→ 1670
Erik PerezNow 1657
If they win+13→ 1670
If they lose-11→ 1646

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1653 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1552 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.53
Sig. strikes / min
3.16
34%
Strike accuracy
41%
3.61
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.09
54%
Strike defense
67%
2.57
Takedown avg.
3.16
26%
Takedown accuracy
56%
81%
Takedown defense
69%
0.75
Submission avg.
0.17

Trajectory

Bryan CarawayErik Perez
1650170020192020202120222023

Win method breakdown

2 (9%)
KO/TKO
5 (25%)
16 (73%)
Submission
8 (40%)
4 (18%)
Decision
7 (35%)

Combat Edge model read

Bryan Caraway53%
Erik Perez 47%Elo baseline: 54%

The Combat Edge model makes Bryan Caraway a 53% favorite over Erik Perez in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).

Bryan Caraway holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1683 to 1657, a 26-point edge.

Bryan Caraway finishes 82% of wins inside the distance, Erik Perez 65%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.