Combat Edge Intelligence

Bryan Caraway vs Mitch Gagnon

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

22-9-0Record12-5-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'9"Height5'6"
68,0"Reach65,5"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamTroop MMA

What's at stake

Bryan Caraway is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Mitch Gagnon carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Bryan CarawayNow 1683
If they win+10→ 1693
If they lose-14→ 1669
Mitch GagnonNow 1631
If they win+18→ 1649
If they lose-14→ 1617

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1653 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1601 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.53
Sig. strikes / min
2.76
34%
Strike accuracy
46%
3.61
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.21
54%
Strike defense
62%
2.57
Takedown avg.
1.16
26%
Takedown accuracy
25%
81%
Takedown defense
66%
0.75
Submission avg.
1.93

Trajectory

Bryan CarawayMitch Gagnon
16501700201720182019

Win method breakdown

2 (9%)
KO/TKO
1 (8%)
16 (73%)
Submission
10 (83%)
4 (18%)
Decision
1 (8%)

Combat Edge model read

Bryan Caraway56%
Mitch Gagnon 44%Elo baseline: 57%

The Combat Edge model makes Bryan Caraway a 56% favorite over Mitch Gagnon in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).

Bryan Caraway holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1683 to 1631, a 52-point edge.

Mitch Gagnon enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Bryan Caraway finishes 82% of wins inside the distance, Mitch Gagnon 92%.

Bryan Caraway carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.