Combat Edge Intelligence

Bryan Caraway vs Pavel Andrusca

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

22-9-0Record8-0-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'9"Height5'6"
68,0"Reach-
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeam

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Bryan CarawayNow 1683
If they win+12→ 1695
If they lose-12→ 1671
Pavel AndruscaNow 1684
If they win+24→ 1708
If they lose-24→ 1660

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1653 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1518 · 8 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.53
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
34%
Strike accuracy
TBD
3.61
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
54%
Strike defense
TBD
2.57
Takedown avg.
TBD
26%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
81%
Takedown defense
TBD
0.75
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Bryan CarawayPavel Andrusca
16001650170020192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

2 (9%)
KO/TKO
6 (75%)
16 (73%)
Submission
1 (13%)
4 (18%)
Decision
1 (13%)

Combat Edge model read

Pavel Andrusca70%
Bryan Caraway 30%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Pavel Andrusca a 70% favorite over Bryan Caraway in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1683 vs 1684), separated by just 1 points.

Pavel Andrusca enters on a 8-fight win streak.

Bryan Caraway finishes 82% of wins inside the distance, Pavel Andrusca 88%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.