Bryan Caraway vs Raphael Assunção
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
22-9-0Record28-10-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'9"Height5'5"
68,0"Reach66"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamXtreme Couture
What's at stake
Raphael Assunção is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Bryan Caraway carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1696
If they lose-11→ 1672
If they win+11→ 1718
If they lose-13→ 1694
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1653 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1700 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Bryan CarawayRaphael Assunção
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Bryan Caraway and Raphael Assunção within a point of even.
Raphael Assunção holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1707 to 1683, a 24-point edge.
Bryan Caraway finishes 82% of wins inside the distance, Raphael Assunção 50%.
Bryan Caraway and Raphael Assunção share 1 common opponent: Aljamain Sterling.
Bryan Caraway carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.