Bryan Caraway vs Takeya Mizugaki
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
22-9-0Record23-14-2
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'9"Height5'7"
68,0"Reach68,0"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamHakkei Gym
What's at stake
Bryan Caraway is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Takeya Mizugaki carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+9→ 1692
If they lose-15→ 1668
If they win+15→ 1623
If they lose-9→ 1599
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1653 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1601 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Bryan CarawayTakeya Mizugaki
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Bryan Caraway72%
Takeya Mizugaki 28%Elo baseline: 61%
The Combat Edge model makes Bryan Caraway a 72% favorite over Takeya Mizugaki in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).
Bryan Caraway holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1683 to 1608, a 75-point edge.
Bryan Caraway finishes 82% of wins inside the distance, Takeya Mizugaki 26%.
Bryan Caraway and Takeya Mizugaki share 2 common opponents: Aljamain Sterling and Eddie Wineland.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.