Combat Edge Intelligence

Bryce Logan vs Nilton Gavião

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

13-10-0Record17-8-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'8"
70"Reach-
156 lbsWeight151 lbs
Power MMA TeamTeamSombra Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Bryce LoganNow 1547
If they win+16→ 1563
If they lose-16→ 1531
Nilton GaviãoNow 1547
If they win+16→ 1563
If they lose-16→ 1531

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1568 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1501 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
TBD
Strike accuracy
TBD
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
TBD
Strike defense
TBD
TBD
Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
TBD
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Bryce LoganNilton Gavião
1550160020252026

Win method breakdown

4 (31%)
KO/TKO
6 (35%)
1 (8%)
Submission
4 (24%)
8 (62%)
Decision
7 (41%)

Combat Edge model read

Bryce Logan71%
Nilton Gavião 29%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Bryce Logan a 71% favorite over Nilton Gavião in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1547 vs 1547), separated by just 0 points.

Bryce Logan enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Nilton Gavião enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Bryce Logan finishes 38% of wins inside the distance, Nilton Gavião 59%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.