Buddy Roberts vs Caio Magalhaes
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
12-3-0Record10-7-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'2"Height6'1"
TBDReach73.00
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Jackson-Wink MMATeamTeixeira MMA & Fitness· 1650 avg Elo · 6 rated
What's at stake
Buddy Roberts is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Caio Magalhaes carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1632
If they lose-19→ 1600
If they win+19→ 1582
If they lose-13→ 1550
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1521 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1636 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Buddy RobertsCaio Magalhaes
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Caio Magalhaes62%
Buddy Roberts 38%Elo baseline: 42%
The Combat Edge model makes Caio Magalhaes a 62% favorite over Buddy Roberts in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Buddy Roberts's way (42%).
Buddy Roberts holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1619 to 1563, a 56-point edge.
Caio Magalhaes enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Buddy Roberts finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Caio Magalhaes 70%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.