Cássio Barão vs Fabrizio Escarrega
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-2-1Record9-2-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height6'1"
71"Reach-
155 lbsWeight156 lbs
Dyogo Teles MMATeamVictory Fight Club· 1683 avg Elo · 3 rated
What's at stake
Fabrizio Escarrega is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Cássio Barão carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1639
If they lose-15→ 1607
If they win+15→ 1655
If they lose-17→ 1623
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1518 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1507 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Cássio BarãoFabrizio Escarrega
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Cássio Barão and Fabrizio Escarrega within a point of even.
Fabrizio Escarrega holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1640 to 1622, a 18-point edge.
Cássio Barão finishes 90% of wins inside the distance, Fabrizio Escarrega 89%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.