Cássio Barão vs Kevin Pease
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Kevin Pease69%
Cássio Barão 31%Elo baseline: 61%
The Combat Edge model makes Kevin Pease a 69% favorite over Cássio Barão in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).
Kevin Pease holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1702 to 1622, a 80-point edge.
Kevin Pease enters on a 9-fight win streak.
Cássio Barão finishes 90% of wins inside the distance, Kevin Pease 67%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
10-2-1Record9-0-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'8"Height5'8"
71"Reach72"
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
Dyogo Teles MMA· 1618 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamKill Cliff FC
What's at stake
Kevin Pease is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +19 while a loss costs more — Cássio Barão carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+20→ 1642
If they lose-12→ 1610
If they win+19→ 1721
If they lose-29→ 1673
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1518 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1532 · 9 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Cássio BarãoKevin Pease