César Almeida vs Dylan Budka
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
7-3-0Record7-5-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height5'11"
74"Reach75″
185 lbsWeight189 lbs
What's at stake
César Almeida is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Dylan Budka carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1640
If they lose-19→ 1608
If they win+19→ 1589
If they lose-13→ 1557
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1613 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1581 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
César AlmeidaDylan Budka
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
César Almeida57%
Dylan Budka 43%Elo baseline: 58%
The Combat Edge model makes César Almeida a 57% favorite over Dylan Budka in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).
César Almeida holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1627 to 1570, a 57-point edge.
César Almeida enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Dylan Budka enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
César Almeida finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Dylan Budka 43%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.