Combat Edge Intelligence

César Almeida vs Roman Kopylov

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

7-3-0Record15-5-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height6'0"
74"Reach75"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Lotus MMATeamRaty Team· 1669 avg Elo · 13 rated

What's at stake

Roman Kopylov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — César Almeida carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

César AlmeidaNow 1627
If they win+20→ 1647
If they lose-12→ 1615
Roman KopylovNow 1713
If they win+12→ 1725
If they lose-20→ 1693

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1613 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1686 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.46
Sig. strikes / min
4.59
59%
Strike accuracy
50%
2.03
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
5.18
46%
Strike defense
52%
0
Takedown avg.
1.14
0%
Takedown accuracy
48%
52%
Takedown defense
89%
0.21
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

César AlmeidaRoman Kopylov
160016501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (71%)
KO/TKO
12 (80%)
0 (0%)
Submission
0 (0%)
2 (29%)
Decision
3 (20%)

Combat Edge model read

Roman Kopylov73%
César Almeida 27%Elo baseline: 62%

The Combat Edge model makes Roman Kopylov a 73% favorite over César Almeida in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (62%).

Roman Kopylov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1713 to 1627, a 86-point edge.

César Almeida enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Roman Kopylov enters on a 2-fight win streak.

César Almeida finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Roman Kopylov 80%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.