César Almeida vs Warlley Alves
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
7-3-0Record14-8-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height5'11"
74"Reach72,0"
185 lbsWeight186 lbs
Lotus MMATeamRizzo RVT
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1644
If they lose-16→ 1612
If they win+16→ 1642
If they lose-16→ 1610
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1615 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1651 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
César AlmeidaWarlley Alves
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Warlley Alves58%
César Almeida 42%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Warlley Alves a 58% favorite over César Almeida in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans César Almeida's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1628 vs 1626), separated by just 2 points.
César Almeida enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Warlley Alves enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
César Almeida finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Warlley Alves 71%.
César Almeida carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.