Combat Edge Intelligence

C.J. Keith vs Francisco Trinaldo

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

8-4-0Record29-9-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'8"
TBDReach70"
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
Pro BuhaweTeamBrazilian TKO

What's at stake

Francisco Trinaldo is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +3 while a loss costs more — C.J. Keith carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

C.J. KeithNow 1452
If they win+41→ 1493
If they lose-7→ 1445
Francisco TrinaldoNow 1766
If they win+3→ 1769
If they lose-21→ 1745

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1561 · 2 fightsPre-fight Elo1693 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

0.86
Sig. strikes / min
3.13
50%
Strike accuracy
45%
1.82
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.67
50%
Strike defense
61%
0
Takedown avg.
0.98
0%
Takedown accuracy
42%
63%
Takedown defense
60%
0
Submission avg.
0.51

Trajectory

C.J. KeithFrancisco Trinaldo
15001600170018002013201420152016201720182019202020212022

Win method breakdown

3 (38%)
KO/TKO
10 (34%)
2 (25%)
Submission
5 (17%)
3 (38%)
Decision
14 (48%)

Combat Edge model read

Francisco Trinaldo83%
C.J. Keith 17%Elo baseline: 86%

The Combat Edge model makes Francisco Trinaldo a 83% favorite over C.J. Keith in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (86%).

Francisco Trinaldo holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1766 to 1452, a 314-point edge.

C.J. Keith enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

C.J. Keith finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Francisco Trinaldo 52%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.