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Combat Edge Intelligence

C.J. Keith vs Italo Diaz

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →
Italo Diaz
pe

Italo Diaz

“La Roca”

0-2-0LightweightInka MMA

1452Average

Tale of the tape

8-4-0Record0-2-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"HeightTBD
TBDReach-
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Pro BuhaweTeam

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

C.J. KeithNow 1452
If they win+24→ 1476
If they lose-24→ 1428
Italo DiazNow 1452
If they win+24→ 1476
If they lose-24→ 1428

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1559 · 2 fightsPre-fight Elo1500 · 2 fights

Tracked stat edges

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

0.86
Sig. strikes / min
Not available
50%
Strike accuracy
Not available
1.82
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
Not available
50%
Strike defense
Not available
0
Takedown avg.
Not available
0%
Takedown accuracy
Not available
63%
Takedown defense
Not available
0
Submission avg.
Not available

Trajectory

C.J. KeithItalo Diaz
1450150020132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (38%)
KO/TKO
0 (0%)
2 (25%)
Submission
0 (0%)
3 (38%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Italo Diaz56%
C.J. Keith 44%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Italo Diaz a 56% favorite over C.J. Keith in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans C.J. Keith's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1452 vs 1452), separated by just 0 points.

C.J. Keith enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Italo Diaz enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

C.J. Keith finishes 63% of wins inside the distance.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.