Cain Carrizosa vs Ednilson Santos
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-5-0Record14-8-1
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'9"
TBDReach73"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1580
If they lose-16→ 1548
If they win+16→ 1581
If they lose-16→ 1549
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1536 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1542 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Cain CarrizosaEdnilson Santos
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ednilson Santos64%
Cain Carrizosa 36%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Ednilson Santos a 64% favorite over Cain Carrizosa in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1564 vs 1565), separated by just 1 points.
Cain Carrizosa enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Cain Carrizosa finishes 55% of wins inside the distance, Ednilson Santos 57%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.