Combat Edge Intelligence

Cain Carrizosa vs Kyle Prepolec

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-5-0Record18-11-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'8"Height5'10"
TBDReach70"
155 lbsWeight160 lbs
Elite TeamTeamMaximum Training Centre

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Cain CarrizosaNow 1564
If they win+16→ 1580
If they lose-16→ 1548
Kyle PrepolecNow 1567
If they win+12→ 1579
If they lose-12→ 1555

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1535 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1609 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.72
Sig. strikes / min
3.25
42%
Strike accuracy
34%
5.80
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
5.69
51%
Strike defense
49%
0
Takedown avg.
0
0%
Takedown accuracy
0%
14%
Takedown defense
45%
0
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Cain CarrizosaKyle Prepolec
155016002020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (27%)
KO/TKO
10 (56%)
3 (27%)
Submission
4 (22%)
5 (45%)
Decision
4 (22%)

Combat Edge model read

Kyle Prepolec59%
Cain Carrizosa 41%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Kyle Prepolec a 59% favorite over Cain Carrizosa in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1564 vs 1567), separated by just 3 points.

Cain Carrizosa enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Kyle Prepolec enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Cain Carrizosa finishes 55% of wins inside the distance, Kyle Prepolec 78%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.