Combat Edge Intelligence

Cain Carrizosa vs Leonardo Mafra

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-5-0Record15-7-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'8"Height5'9"
TBDReachTBD
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
Elite TeamTeamKings MMA

What's at stake

Cain Carrizosa is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Leonardo Mafra carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Cain CarrizosaNow 1564
If they win+12→ 1576
If they lose-20→ 1544
Leonardo MafraNow 1473
If they win+30→ 1503
If they lose-18→ 1455

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1535 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1613 · 4 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.72
Sig. strikes / min
4.55
42%
Strike accuracy
48%
5.80
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.38
51%
Strike defense
44%
0
Takedown avg.
2.12
0%
Takedown accuracy
83%
14%
Takedown defense
69%
0
Submission avg.
0.42

Trajectory

Cain CarrizosaLeonardo Mafra
145015001550160020152016201720182019202020212022

Win method breakdown

3 (27%)
KO/TKO
9 (60%)
3 (27%)
Submission
1 (7%)
5 (45%)
Decision
5 (33%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Cain Carrizosa and Leonardo Mafra within a point of even.

Cain Carrizosa holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1564 to 1473, a 91-point edge.

Cain Carrizosa enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Cain Carrizosa finishes 55% of wins inside the distance, Leonardo Mafra 67%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.