Cain Velasquez vs Derrick Lewis
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-3-0Record29-14-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'1"Height6'3"
77"Reach79"
241 lbsWeight264 lbs
American Kickboxing AcademyTeamMain Street Boxing & Muay Thai
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1753
If they lose-16→ 1721
If they win+12→ 1756
If they lose-12→ 1732
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1741 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1717 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Cain VelasquezDerrick Lewis
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Derrick Lewis62%
Cain Velasquez 38%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Derrick Lewis a 62% favorite over Cain Velasquez in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1737 vs 1744), separated by just 7 points.
Derrick Lewis enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Cain Velasquez finishes 86% of wins inside the distance, Derrick Lewis 86%.
Derrick Lewis carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.