Combat Edge Intelligence

Cain Velasquez vs Jake O'Brien

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

14-3-0Record15-4-0
HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'1"Height6'3"
77"ReachTBD
241 lbsWeight205 lbs
American Kickboxing AcademyTeamIntegrated Fighting Academy

What's at stake

Cain Velasquez is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Jake O'Brien carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Cain VelasquezNow 1737
If they win+14→ 1751
If they lose-18→ 1719
Jake O'BrienNow 1692
If they win+18→ 1710
If they lose-14→ 1678

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1741 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1588 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

6.37
Sig. strikes / min
1.32
58%
Strike accuracy
32%
2.33
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.93
57%
Strike defense
69%
5.13
Takedown avg.
6.44
45%
Takedown accuracy
57%
86%
Takedown defense
25%
0.38
Submission avg.
0.21

Trajectory

Cain VelasquezJake O'Brien
17001750201120122013201420152016201720182019

Win method breakdown

12 (86%)
KO/TKO
7 (47%)
0 (0%)
Submission
3 (20%)
2 (14%)
Decision
5 (33%)

Combat Edge model read

Cain Velasquez53%
Jake O'Brien 47%Elo baseline: 56%

The Combat Edge model makes Cain Velasquez a 53% favorite over Jake O'Brien in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).

Cain Velasquez holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1737 to 1692, a 45-point edge.

Jake O'Brien enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Cain Velasquez finishes 86% of wins inside the distance, Jake O'Brien 67%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.