Cain Velasquez vs Jake O'Brien
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
14-3-0Record15-4-0
HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'1"Height6'3"
77"ReachTBD
241 lbsWeight205 lbs
American Kickboxing Academy· 1639 avg Elo · 6 ratedTeamIntegrated Fighting Academy
What's at stake
Cain Velasquez is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Jake O'Brien carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1750
If they lose-18→ 1718
If they win+18→ 1710
If they lose-14→ 1678
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1738 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1588 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Cain VelasquezJake O'Brien
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Cain Velasquez57%
Jake O'Brien 43%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Cain Velasquez a 57% favorite over Jake O'Brien in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Cain Velasquez holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1736 to 1692, a 44-point edge.
Jake O'Brien enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Cain Velasquez finishes 86% of wins inside the distance, Jake O'Brien 67%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.