Combat Edge Intelligence

Cain Velasquez vs Junior dos Santos

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

14-3-0Record23-11-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'1"Height6'4"
77"Reach77"
241 lbsWeight250 lbs
American Kickboxing AcademyTeamChampion Team

What's at stake

Cain Velasquez is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Junior dos Santos carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Cain VelasquezNow 1737
If they win+12→ 1749
If they lose-20→ 1717
Junior dos SantosNow 1642
If they win+15→ 1657
If they lose-9→ 1633

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1741 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1694 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

6.37
Sig. strikes / min
4.49
58%
Strike accuracy
48%
2.33
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.33
57%
Strike defense
56%
5.13
Takedown avg.
0.30
45%
Takedown accuracy
50%
86%
Takedown defense
82%
0.38
Submission avg.
0.06

Trajectory

Cain VelasquezJunior dos Santos
1650170017502017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

12 (86%)
KO/TKO
16 (70%)
0 (0%)
Submission
1 (4%)
2 (14%)
Decision
6 (26%)

Combat Edge model read

Cain Velasquez72%
Junior dos Santos 28%Elo baseline: 63%

The Combat Edge model makes Cain Velasquez a 72% favorite over Junior dos Santos in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).

Cain Velasquez holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1737 to 1642, a 95-point edge.

Junior dos Santos enters on a 6-fight loss streak.

Cain Velasquez finishes 86% of wins inside the distance, Junior dos Santos 74%.

Cain Velasquez and Junior dos Santos share 1 common opponent: Francis Ngannou.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.

Common opponents (1)

LossPunches · 2019
Francis Ngannou
LossTKO · 2019