Cain Velasquez vs Junior dos Santos
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-3-0Record23-11-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'1"Height6'4"
77"Reach77"
241 lbsWeight250 lbs
American Kickboxing Academy· 1639 avg Elo · 6 ratedTeamChampion Team
What's at stake
Cain Velasquez is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Junior dos Santos carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+12→ 1748
If they lose-20→ 1716
If they win+15→ 1658
If they lose-9→ 1634
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1738 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1695 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Cain VelasquezJunior dos Santos
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Cain Velasquez52%
Junior dos Santos 48%Elo baseline: 63%
The Combat Edge model makes Cain Velasquez a 52% favorite over Junior dos Santos in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).
Cain Velasquez holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1736 to 1643, a 93-point edge.
Junior dos Santos enters on a 6-fight loss streak.
Cain Velasquez finishes 86% of wins inside the distance, Junior dos Santos 74%.
Cain Velasquez and Junior dos Santos share 1 common opponent: Francis Ngannou.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.