Combat Edge Intelligence

Cain Velasquez vs Mario Pinto

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

14-3-0Record12-0-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'1"Height6'5"
77"Reach79"
241 lbsWeight265 lbs
American Kickboxing Academy· 1641 avg Elo · 5 ratedTeamUrban Warriors

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Cain VelasquezNow 1737
If they win+16→ 1753
If they lose-16→ 1721
Mario PintoNow 1742
If they win+16→ 1758
If they lose-16→ 1726

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1741 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1556 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

6.37
Sig. strikes / min
2.85
58%
Strike accuracy
70%
2.33
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.93
57%
Strike defense
58%
5.13
Takedown avg.
2.38
45%
Takedown accuracy
0%
86%
Takedown defense
100%
0.38
Submission avg.
0.95

Trajectory

Cain VelasquezMario Pinto
1650170017502017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

12 (86%)
KO/TKO
7 (58%)
0 (0%)
Submission
1 (8%)
2 (14%)
Decision
4 (33%)

Combat Edge model read

Mario Pinto70%
Cain Velasquez 30%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Mario Pinto a 70% favorite over Cain Velasquez in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1737 vs 1742), separated by just 5 points.

Mario Pinto enters on a 10-fight win streak.

Cain Velasquez finishes 86% of wins inside the distance, Mario Pinto 67%.

Mario Pinto carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.