Caio Bittencourt vs Karl Reed
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-11-0Record5-2-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'0"Height6'3"
75"Reach45,0"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Roxo Strike TeamTeamUpstate Karate
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1592
If they lose-16→ 1560
If they win+24→ 1597
If they lose-24→ 1549
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1597 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1499 · 8 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Caio BittencourtKarl Reed
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Caio Bittencourt60%
Karl Reed 40%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Caio Bittencourt a 60% favorite over Karl Reed in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1576 vs 1573), separated by just 3 points.
Caio Bittencourt finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Karl Reed 40%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.