Combat Edge Intelligence

Caio Bittencourt vs Yasuhito Namekawa

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

18-11-0Record25-16-4
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'0"Height5'11"
75"ReachTBD
205 lbsWeight197 lbs
Roxo Strike TeamTeamTeam M.A.D.

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Caio BittencourtNow 1576
If they win+16→ 1592
If they lose-16→ 1560
Yasuhito NamekawaNow 1576
If they win+12→ 1588
If they lose-12→ 1564

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1597 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1489 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
TBD
Strike accuracy
TBD
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
TBD
Strike defense
TBD
TBD
Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
TBD
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Caio BittencourtYasuhito Namekawa
150015501600200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

14 (78%)
KO/TKO
5 (21%)
4 (22%)
Submission
15 (63%)
0 (0%)
Decision
4 (17%)

Combat Edge model read

Caio Bittencourt63%
Yasuhito Namekawa 37%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Caio Bittencourt a 63% favorite over Yasuhito Namekawa in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1576 vs 1576), separated by just 0 points.

Caio Bittencourt finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Yasuhito Namekawa 83%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.