Combat Edge Intelligence

Caio Borralho vs Kamaru Usman

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Kamaru Usman
us

Kamaru Usman

“The Nigerian Nightmare”

21-5-0MiddleweightUFC

1810Great

Tale of the tape

18-2-0Record21-5-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'2"Height6'0"
75"Reach76"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
The Fighting Nerds· 1712 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamKill Cliff FC

What's at stake

Kamaru Usman is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Caio Borralho carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Caio BorralhoNow 1789
If they win+17→ 1806
If they lose-15→ 1774
Kamaru UsmanNow 1810
If they win+11→ 1821
If they lose-13→ 1797

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1688 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1799 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.44
Sig. strikes / min
4.16
56%
Strike accuracy
52%
2.50
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.67
60%
Strike defense
55%
1.28
Takedown avg.
2.79
48%
Takedown accuracy
44%
77%
Takedown defense
90%
0.43
Submission avg.
0.09

Trajectory

Caio BorralhoKamaru Usman
17501800202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (28%)
KO/TKO
9 (43%)
4 (22%)
Submission
1 (5%)
9 (50%)
Decision
11 (52%)

Combat Edge model read

Caio Borralho63%
Kamaru Usman 37%Elo baseline: 47%

The Combat Edge model makes Caio Borralho a 63% favorite over Kamaru Usman in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Kamaru Usman's way (47%).

Kamaru Usman holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1810 to 1789, a 21-point edge.

Caio Borralho finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Kamaru Usman 48%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.