Caio Borralho vs Kamaru Usman
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-2-0Record21-5-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'2"Height6'0"
75"Reach76"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
The Fighting Nerds· 1704 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamKill Cliff FC
What's at stake
Kamaru Usman is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Caio Borralho carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1811
If they lose-15→ 1779
If they win+11→ 1822
If they lose-13→ 1798
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1689 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1800 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Caio BorralhoKamaru Usman
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Caio Borralho51%
Kamaru Usman 49%Elo baseline: 48%
The Combat Edge model makes Caio Borralho a 51% favorite over Kamaru Usman in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Kamaru Usman's way (48%).
Kamaru Usman holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1811 to 1794, a 17-point edge.
Caio Borralho finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Kamaru Usman 48%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.