Combat Edge Intelligence

Caio Borralho vs Krzysztof Jotko

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

18-2-0Record30-6-0
MiddleweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'2"Height6'1"
75"Reach77"
185 lbsWeight205 lbs
The Fighting Nerds· 1712 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

Caio Borralho is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Krzysztof Jotko carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Caio BorralhoNow 1789
If they win+15→ 1804
If they lose-17→ 1772
Krzysztof JotkoNow 1771
If they win+13→ 1784
If they lose-11→ 1760

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1688 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1669 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.44
Sig. strikes / min
2.98
56%
Strike accuracy
43%
2.50
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.23
60%
Strike defense
57%
1.28
Takedown avg.
1.33
48%
Takedown accuracy
19%
77%
Takedown defense
82%
0.43
Submission avg.
0.07

Trajectory

Caio BorralhoKrzysztof Jotko
17501800202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (28%)
KO/TKO
8 (27%)
4 (22%)
Submission
2 (7%)
9 (50%)
Decision
20 (67%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Caio Borralho and Krzysztof Jotko within a point of even.

Caio Borralho holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1789 to 1771, a 18-point edge.

Krzysztof Jotko enters on a 6-fight win streak.

Caio Borralho finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Krzysztof Jotko 33%.

Krzysztof Jotko carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.