Combat Edge Intelligence

Caio Borralho vs Paul Craig

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Paul Craig

Paul Craig

“Bearjew”

17-10-1MiddleweightUFC

1662Good

Tale of the tape

18-2-0Record17-10-1
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'2"Height6'4"
75"Reach76"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
The Fighting NerdsTeamScottish Hit Squad

What's at stake

Caio Borralho is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Paul Craig carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Caio BorralhoNow 1789
If they win+10→ 1799
If they lose-22→ 1767
Paul CraigNow 1662
If they win+16→ 1678
If they lose-8→ 1654

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1688 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1714 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.44
Sig. strikes / min
2.54
56%
Strike accuracy
45%
2.50
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3
60%
Strike defense
44%
1.28
Takedown avg.
1.47
48%
Takedown accuracy
19%
77%
Takedown defense
35%
0.43
Submission avg.
1.38

Trajectory

Caio BorralhoPaul Craig
1650170017501800202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (28%)
KO/TKO
4 (24%)
4 (22%)
Submission
13 (76%)
9 (50%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Caio Borralho92%
Paul Craig 8%Elo baseline: 68%

The Combat Edge model makes Caio Borralho a 92% favorite over Paul Craig in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (68%).

Caio Borralho holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1789 to 1662, a 127-point edge.

Paul Craig enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Caio Borralho finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Paul Craig 100%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.