Caio Machado vs Don'Tale Mayes
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
13-5-1Record11-9-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'6"
78"Reach81"
205 lbsWeight264 lbs
Franco Kickboxing and PankrationTeamBronx Hill MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1590
If they lose-12→ 1566
If they win+16→ 1596
If they lose-16→ 1564
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1575 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1643 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Caio MachadoDon'Tale Mayes
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Caio Machado62%
Don'Tale Mayes 38%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Caio Machado a 62% favorite over Don'Tale Mayes in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Don'Tale Mayes's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1578 vs 1580), separated by just 2 points.
Don'Tale Mayes enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Caio Machado finishes 85% of wins inside the distance, Don'Tale Mayes 64%.
Don'Tale Mayes carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.