Caio Machado vs Don'Tale Mayes
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
13-5-1Record11-10-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'6"
78"Reach81"
205 lbsWeight264 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1588
If they lose-12→ 1564
If they win+16→ 1592
If they lose-16→ 1560
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1572 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1642 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Caio MachadoDon'Tale Mayes
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Don'Tale Mayes58%
Caio Machado 42%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Don'Tale Mayes a 58% favorite over Caio Machado in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Caio Machado's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1576 vs 1576), separated by just 0 points.
Don'Tale Mayes enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Caio Machado finishes 85% of wins inside the distance, Don'Tale Mayes 64%.
Don'Tale Mayes carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.