Caio Machado vs Jake Craig
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
13-5-1Record4-1-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'4"Height6'2"
78"Reach-
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Franco Kickboxing and PankrationTeamShaved Bears MMA· 1581 avg Elo · 4 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1588
If they lose-12→ 1564
If they win+24→ 1602
If they lose-24→ 1554
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1571 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1545 · 5 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Caio MachadoJake Craig
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Caio Machado54%
Jake Craig 46%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Caio Machado a 54% favorite over Jake Craig in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Jake Craig's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1576 vs 1578), separated by just 2 points.
Caio Machado finishes 85% of wins inside the distance, Jake Craig 75%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.