Combat Edge Intelligence

Caio Machado vs Mike Nickels

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Caio Machado
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Caio Machado

“Bigfoot”

13-5-1Light HeavyweightUAEW

1578Solid

Tale of the tape

13-5-1Record9-5-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'4"Height6'4"
78"ReachTBD
205 lbsWeight204 lbs
Franco Kickboxing and PankrationTeamColorado Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Caio MachadoNow 1578
If they win+12→ 1590
If they lose-12→ 1566
Mike NickelsNow 1575
If they win+16→ 1591
If they lose-16→ 1559

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1575 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1552 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

5.82
Sig. strikes / min
4.44
54%
Strike accuracy
52%
2.87
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.11
64%
Strike defense
65%
0
Takedown avg.
11.11
0%
Takedown accuracy
80%
82%
Takedown defense
0%
0
Submission avg.
2.78

Trajectory

Caio MachadoMike Nickels
150015501600165020102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

9 (69%)
KO/TKO
3 (33%)
2 (15%)
Submission
6 (67%)
2 (15%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Caio Machado66%
Mike Nickels 34%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Caio Machado a 66% favorite over Mike Nickels in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1578 vs 1575), separated by just 3 points.

Caio Machado finishes 85% of wins inside the distance, Mike Nickels 100%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.